Now He Owns It
Trump gambles with his fragile MAGA coalition--and America First.
Oh what a difference a week makes.
Just a few days ago we were talking about the State of the Union. You know, a unique set of domestic problems that America First solutions were going to fix. Replacing income taxes with tariffs, reducing a Democrat-driven cost of living, combating fraud and urban crime, ending ‘identity politics,’ acknowledging biological reality, voter ID and secure ballots.
Why, President Trump even challenged his radical opposition to reaffirm that “the first duty of the American government is to protect American citizens…”1 They did not and it was their bizarre agenda that would be at the heart of the midterm elections in eight months.
Now, all bets are off.
Operation Epic Fury is under way and for all its initial optimism a little realpolitik is in order. If the ‘war on terror’ has taught us anything, it is that toppling regimes is a lot easier than replacing them. Beyond the bipartisan failures in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria (more on that later), just toppling the government in Tehran may cost even more in blood and treasure.
Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, reportedly warned of munitions and deployment constraints and is now adding forces in the Middle East.2 Iran is four times the size of Iraq with over 90 million people. The Ayatollah Khomeini is gone, but his death likely strengthens hardline paramilitary loyalists in the 200,000 strong IRGC and no one knows how many ballistic missiles Iran has left.3
It has already retaliated against arch-enemy Saudi Arabia, taking its major oil refinery offline. Safe haven UAE has come under a barrage of attacks causing panic in wealthy enclaves like Dubai, directly adjacent to the Strait of Hormuz energy chokepoint. Qatar has suspended production of liquefied natural gas after attacks by Iranian drones.4
Caine and others have noted there will more U.S. causalities.5
It seems incongruent with an Iran weakened by a series of strikes and sanctions to which Russia and China have not substantially ameliorated. Its proxies such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Islamic Jihad have been effectively wiped out and last summer’s Operation Midnight Hammer ostensibly ‘obliterated’ Iran’s nuclear capabilities.6
So why bomb a ‘paper tiger’ to smithereens?
Because, like Iraq, we were told that Iran had or was about to have ‘weapons of mass destruction.’ In this case, a nuclear weapon. Of course, we’ve been told it was ‘one day away’ from a nuke for the last 30 years.7 But hey, as every member on the House Armed Services Committee can tell you, they’ve “been at war with the United States for 47 years.”8
Well, uh…not exactly.
